The Dawn of a New Era in Automotive Innovation
Perspective
The history of innovation in the automotive industry has undergone both periods of rapid, prolific progress as well as periods of relative stagnation. In one sense, it is astonishing to think how much automotive technology has remained the same over the years – one can still register a car built 50 years ago, and indeed such a car could even serve as a useful and practical daily-driver on modern roads. The routine, operator-perceived performance of many cars from 1960 is consistent with modern expectations, and certainly sufficient to keep up with the requirements of modern highway travel. The fundamental architecture of a surprising number of the basic systems has remained fairly constant; for example: the ubiquitous reciprocating, spark-ignition internal-combustion engine, using poppet valves in-head actuated by a mechanically driven cam. Fuel injection, though still novel and rare, was available in 1960, as was a synchronized transmission, and vacuum-assisted, hydraulic disk brakes. Indeed, many of these technologies were available even 75 years ago.
As in other sectors, necessity has been the mother of invention in the automotive industry. However, over time, there have been relatively few real necessities to drive innovation in this industry. Over the last 100 years of automotive progress, the single primary external necessity has been presented by episodes of rising fuel cost, particularly in the 1970s. This phenomenon incited a flurry of innovation (which met with varying degrees of success), directed toward improving the efficiency of the automobiles available to consumers. Most other pressures to innovate have primarily resulted from government regulation, particularly through the EPA, DOT, and NHTSA – in other words, CAFE standards, gas-guzzler taxes, and crash ratings have driven a great deal of the innovation over the last several decades. Without these regulatory pressures, much of the innovation that has occurred over the last 40 years would have been absent, as consumer pressure alone would likely have been insufficient to produce the same results – if pleasure of ownership were the only factor, many of us would be as content to select and drive our favorite car from 1960 or 1970 as we would to drive a modern car.
The Cusp of a New Era
The set of market factors driving demand in the auto industry has remained relatively undisturbed since about 1990. As a result, the cars on sale over that period have not changed dramatically. It appears, however, that we are now on the threshold of a new period of “necessity.” Whatever one’s political sensibilities may be, it seems clear that the general climate of government regulation and intervention has, and will likely continue to, experience a sharp increase in activity. Increased regulation and oversight appear on the horizon for the banking, investment, insurance, medical, energy, and other sectors. There should be little doubt that this trend will significantly impact the automotive industry, at least in the form of measures designed to encourage consumers to drive cars deemed to be efficient, clean, or both. Apart from direct government regulation, control, or outright ownership of major industry participants, we are also witnessing the creation of tax incentives aimed at directing automotive buying behavior, such as credits for junking old cars, and for purchasing the types of cars that the government prefers consumers to drive. The net effect of these instances of government control, influence, and intervention will likely manifest as increased demand for, and corresponding innovation in, technologies perceived to be green, renewable, and sustainable. Indeed, we can already see this trend reflected in advertising and popular culture.
The Awkward Adjustment Period
If history is a guide, it is likely that it will take several years for the auto industry to adapt to the new market realities, during which we will likely observe some failures, misfires, and market exits. The industry experienced something similar in the wake of the imposition of emission controls in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The short-term response by the automotive manufacturers to those pressures is widely regarded as disappointing. Many of the auto companies’ attempts to address this situation resulted in a slower, heavier, and far less satisfying product. This weak response was the result of trying to adapt old technologies to meet the demands and design challenges imposed by the new regulations. With time, auto companies realized that new solutions were required, and they produced them. Consumers then saw a increase in the use of fuel injection, electronic ignition, and more efficient engine and driveline designs.
Not long after the auto companies grappled with the challenges of emissions controls, they were faced with a new, equally formidable problem – the fuel crisis of the mid-1970s. This led to a whole new host of market demands, shaped both by an increased organic demand for cars perceived to be more efficient, and government regulation directed at achieving the same result. Again, the early attempts to address these challenges were disappointing. One significant effect was a marked increase in the market share of cars originating in countries where fuel had long been more expensive for the average consumer. By the time cars finally got “good” again, we were already well into the mid and late 1980s. The aggregate landscape of cars available in 1969 would look dramatically different, relatively speaking, from that 20 years later in 1989. Over the course of those two decades, thousands of automotive innovations had to be made to in order meet the changing market demands.
Conclusion
Auto industry engineers and innovators can look forward to several years of fervent activity as our clients and customers scramble to find, adopt, and implement better solutions to contemporary design challenges. The opportunity for innovators and creators of new solutions to make a difference is likely to be greater than it has been in decades. The market is hungry for new and fresh ideas, and this makes it a very exciting time to be a player in the present layer of automotive history.
